The sun – likely to slumber on in 2010. Whilst solarcycle24 has finally kicked into gear there is almost a consensus it will be a low cycle. As to how low NASA is saying around 90 in 2013 (SC23 was 120). Others are putting SC24 peak around 50 and some even as low as 40 which is similar to the Dalton Minimum and as late as 2016. With the decline in sunspot numbers there is a corresponding decrease in temperature on earth. Though the mechanisms for this are still being debated. Livingston & Penn are saying there is declining sunspot magnetism and size, potentially leading to no sunspots within 15 years. Low solar wind. Guestimate – Solar Cycle will reach a sunspot no. of 20 by the end of 2010.
Global temperatures. David Archibald has said that for every year extension on the solar cycle length above the average length of 11 yrs there is a 0.7 degree Celsius reduction in global temperatures which correlates with a 100km shift towards the equator of growing conditions. As SC23 is now estimated to be 13 1/2 yrs long then this equates to a 2.5 x 0.7 = 1.75 d c drop. As to how immediate or how delayed this is considering that the oceans store and release this heat at various times depends on Enso events as Bob Tisdale points out. With the holocene coming to an end, a cooling sun cycle, negative PDO getting deeper, El Nino to give way to La Nina. SOI to go positive there are a lot of cooling signals happenning. Colder wetter will be the trend Guestimate global temperature drop 0.7 d celcius by end 2010
Sea level rise has been flat for 4 years. 2010 will see sea levels on average starting to fall. This is because as the oceans continue to cool (they began cooling in 2003) their volume will contract. Also as a cooling world means more snow and ice on land then there will be a negative balance against the ocean. Guestimate – sea levels will fall by 1mm in 2010.
2010 will politically be the year of the cLIEmate crusades as in desperation the alarmist gravy train seeks by whatever means possible to silence those who expose their lies and fraud. We will see the attempted whitewash of Climategate. The usual alarmist propagandists like the BBC, Nature, New Science & Scientific American will continue their shrill chicken little cries. This will only highlight their corruption and disinterest in science and scientific method. As the world freezes they will be seen more and more for the liars they are. Towards the end of the year it will all collapse with new governments being installed in Australia and other countries. As people see the total corruption of the left and their intent to decieve and control the masses their political support will crumble.